Welcome to The Morning Dump, bite-sized stories corralled into a single article for your morning perusal. If your morning coffee’s working a little too well, pull up a throne and have a gander at the best of the rest of yesterday.
When A Ferrari Is More Stable Than Your Currency
The U.S. dollar is strong and the Japanese yen is, well, not strong. What is a wealthy Japanese person to do? Buy a Lamborghini. There’s a great story from Bloomberg talking about this and I’m going to share the Japan Times version titled “Ferrari, Lamborghini and other supercar sales boom in Japan” because the lead photo is a chromed-up Lamborghini LP700-4 roadster. New registrations of cars costing more than $136,000 grew 64% through the first 10 months of the year, which is even more impressive when you find out that they grew 75% the year before that. What’s going on? Emphasis mine because that quote is going to haunt me for the rest of my life. It’s true. If not now, when? EVs are coming and EVs can be awesome. I also don’t think gas-powered cars are just going to disappear, but a new day is certainly dawning. “If you don’t drive them now, then when?” Suyama said. Some of this increase is likely due to deliveries catching up to orders, but an analyst in the article also makes the point that “It is better to invest in ultraluxury cars for their resale value rather than holding cash.” Almost anything is better than holding cash, of course, but it’s true that vehicles like the Ford GT, for instance, continue to appreciate. It’s certainly better than holding Solana.
Stellantis Has Its Eyes On Morocco
Western automakers’ dream for China was access to millions and millions of customers who did not have a strong core of domestic automakers. That dream is over and now Chinese automakers are starting to export cars to Europe in huge numbers. You know what market could potentially have millions of customers and lacks their own domestic car companies? Africa. According to this Detroit News piece, Steallantis will invest more than $300 million in its Moroccon plant to increase production to 1 million vehicles a year. The company’s existing plant makes Peugeot 208s as well as the electric Citroen Ami and Opel Rocks-e. What’s coming is a “smart car” platform that Stellantis thinks can take over 22% of the African market by the end of the decade.
Covid Ends Hopes Of A Beijing Motor Show This Year
Chinese automakers have a lot to brag about lately, but they’re going to have to do that bragging somewhere other than Beijing because, for the second time this year, the event has been postponed. From Reuters: This is the way of the world. Auto shows have a place, but the pandemic has merely accelerated their demise as the only place cars get shown.
Analysts Think Tesla Will Lose Its Majority Registration Advantage Next Year
It’s been a banner year for electric cars in the United States, with registrations for all electric cars up 57% through the first nine months of 2022. If you were curious, that’s a 50% increase in registrations for Tesla and a 71% increase for everyone else. With Hyundai-Kia-Genesis, Mercedes, Ford, GM, Volkswagen, Volvo, and basically everyone else stepping up their EV game it was only a matter of time before Teslas weren’t the only big player in the space. Here’s the key detail courtesy of Automotive News: People like to rag on Tesla in the automotive world, but this isn’t evidence of the failure of Tesla. This is evidence of company’s success. The entire industry was slow to take electric cars seriously and had to watch as the Tesla Model S and then the Tesla Model 3 cut into their sales. The industry learned and adapted and it’s taken almost a decade but everyone else is making cars that are now, if not better than Teslas, are at least competitive. Also, if you have 40% of a pizza and your 12 other friends have to split 60% of a pizza you still have a lot of pizza.
The Flush
If you had to buy one new-ish hypercar or supercar (built within the last decade) as an investment, where would you (literally) park your money?
Photos: Lamborghini, TrackDays.co.uk, Qoros, Stellantis, Google
The Model Y is 3 model years old but 75% of a model 3 which is already 6 model years old. The X and S are getting pretty old. 8 and 11 years respectively.
I sure they have more up their sleeve than the Cyber Truck and Roadster if they don’t want that pizza down to a single slice before too long.
The eye-opening one for me was discovering that a simple index fund made a better return over the last couple decades than even a McLaren F1 (this was true at least as of a couple years ago, I don’t know anymore with crazy car values and stock market turmoil).
So buying something I don’t like hoping for a financial return would be silly. Instead my goal would be to buy something I enjoy driving, while losing the least amount of money.
My answer to that for an unlimited budget is a Gordon Murray T50. For an attainable budget, it’s probably a 6 speed GT3 or a Viper ACR.
If I was buying it as a pure weekend car I might go with the stick…but if I owned something so amazing I’d be looking for excuses to drive it constantly. Maybe one day…it sure ain’t looking like a GT3 is going to be in the cards anytime soon but in a few years custom ordering a Macan of some sort or getting a certified Panamera will be.
I expect the manuals to hold their value more over the long term.
https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1993
https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
Now obviously you’ve derived value from owning and driving it, but that’s my point. Buying a car as a mere investment almost always fails against even the simplest investment strategies. So rather than trying to chase value and resale, just buy something you like and enjoy it. The rest will sort itself out.
Of course, I can’t go for a ride in my index funds, and I can’t even admire their sleek sexy lines in my driveway.
If somebody wants to justify to themself that a sports car purchase is an “investment” that’s fine. Enjoy your Lambo, Mr. Japanese businessman!
Granted I would have a huge grin on my face.
Too Long/Didn’t read version: Good luck Stellantis.
Thinking about stuff that can bring people a ton of joy just sitting in some rich dude’s warehouse makes me sad. But anyway, I’ll play. As a pure investment piece I think you’d have to track something that down that’s extremely limited…so things like R8s, the volume sellers for Ferrari, McLaren, and Lamborghini (570, Huracan, California, etc), and others aren’t going to hold their value.
It would also have to be a car with a reputation that speaks for itself…and analog super/hypercars are appreciating like crazy and will continue to do so. I can’t imagine the ultra modern hybrid stuff is going to hold its value as well for myriad reasons. I think timeless styling is necessary as well so ugly ducklings like the Enzo are out…and why not check the manual transmission box while we’re at it? As they become more scarce values will keep rising.
I think I’d be between the new Pagani Utopia or finding the most pristine Carrera GT I can. I think they check all the boxes…extremely limited, serious reputations (or an infamous one in the case of the CGT), manual transmissions, and reasonably timeless styling. They’re desirable now and they’ll be desirable forever.
When I was much younger, I almost bought a Daytona. I was earning good money, and the dealer really wanted to unload it (probably because it was blue, and not the obligatory red or yellow). I should have done so, though I’d now have a rather shopworn Ferrari with hundreds of thousands of miles on the clock. “Investment cars” make me break out in hives.
Stellantis sounds like it’s on the ball here. When automakers first took aim at China, a lot of people scoffed; yes, there are zillions of people there, but (at the time) a majority were too poor to buy a car. Africa’s in the same boat right now, but that could change quickly. When you have the bodies, the money is likely to follow.
Wouldn’t mind seeing Tesla knocked off its perch. Their cars don’t seem particularly well made, and I don’t much dig the looks. But then, I’m not fond of many new Electro-Rides. Get back to me when Changli opens up its U.S. dealer network.
From a strictly collector standpoint, probably a Koenigsegg One:1. Very limited run, very recognizable name within the brand. Looks better than most of the other Ageras too.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/the-next-pagani-hypercars-gated-manual-transmission-might-be-the-last
Koenigsegg Trevita or some Pagani. They never depreciate.
picard_quadruple_facepalm.jpeg
No. Seriously. This has been tried before. Several times. Many times. Know what businesses really hate? Uncertainty and instability. Know what Africa has a lot of? Uncertainty and instability. Africa has been fucked over so badly and so repeatedly by ‘white people who know better.’ And their brilliant idea is to come into a bunch of countries that are currently being held hostage financially by China, who is using it to further destabilize and seize control politically and economically (this is really going on.) And play white savior again. Oh yes. This is really going to go great. Especially when China’s basically seizing control of all the mines, political offices, and freshly built rail networks and roads that are already disintegrating due to the deliberate use of sub-sub-substandard iron, steel, and concrete.
Nevermind that the average income of someone in Senegal is about $135 per month, and a high skilled worker – like a programmer – might see $654 a month. And that is by far one of the most stable and developed countries over there. (Where ‘stability’ is having free and fair elections, and the term-limited president is openly talking about using a constitutional coup to stay in power.)
“The industry learned and adapted and it’s taken almost a decade but everyone else is making cars that are now, if not better than Teslas, are at least competitive.”
The worst GM has better build quality and materials than Tesla, no matter what’s under the hood. And it’s cheaper. The only thing propping Tesla up at this point is the cultists, and as those dry up, it’s going to be a death spiral. Especially since they still haven’t delivered on – hey wait wasn’t the Cybertruck supposed to be everywhere last year? Yeah. It’s also not helped by the fact that everything they make has painfully dated styling at this point. People can’t tell a Model 3 from an S, and the Model S hasn’t gotten so much as lighting changes in 10 years. There’s ‘brand identity’ and then there’s ‘everything is the same old design.’ Which is decimating their place as a ‘status symbol.’ Your brand new 2023 Model S looks just like a 2012 Model S, except with worse paint.
“If you had to buy one new-ish hypercar or supercar (built within the last decade) as an investment, where would you (literally) park your money?”
We already know my answer to that question. The 997.2 GTS is a supercar (190MPH+.) But if I had to buy something else? Koenigseggsandhamandbacon Regurgitator… er. Koenigsexcusemewhat Reverba? THAT SWEDISH GUY’S PHEV CAR. That one.
