In the third quarter of last year, half-ton pickup truck market share slipped to 7.8%, sliding further to 7.5% in October, per S&P’s report titled “Pickup owners moving to SUVs (like everyone else).” That’s the lowest market share since the second quarter of 2012 by a country mile, and the analysts claim that SUVs are a direct cause. Body-style loyalty is on the decline, with SUVs seducing current pickup truck owners with highly advanced luxury conveniences like “enclosed cargo areas.” S&P Global Mobility reports that the share of former Ram 1500 owners who’ve migrated to SUVs jumped 5.8 percentage points year-over-year to 41.6%. Mind you, S&P Global Mobility claims that the heavy duty pickup truck segment appears to be staying flat, but that just results in an even more lop-sided car market compared to a scenario where heavy duty pickup sales increase. In a media release, the firm states that “Through the first 10 months of 2022, utility registrations accounted for 68% of retail luxury registrations and 61% of retail registrations industry-wide.” Let that sink in for a second. Indeed, you probably already know that sedans and wagons have lost market share at a rapid rate, although just how rapid requires reiteration. The EPA claims that sedans and wagons held 26% market share in 2021 but 50% market share in 2013. While part of this is likely due to reduced choice in the passenger car arena, it also indicates that America’s still not done being crossover-mad. It’s not hard to see why crossovers and SUVs are so popular. New cars are expensive, so young people aren’t buying a ton of them. Utility vehicles offer a convenient form factor for families toting around strollers and diaper bags, and utility vehicles’ high hip points are often a hit with older generations for ease of entry and egress. In a way, these crossovers and SUVs are a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. People who can afford more stuff are more likely to buy new vehicles, and they want vehicles that can carry all the extra stuff they can afford. A new Toyota Camry may be a perfectly decent sedan, but good luck using it to move an armchair.
Plus, the wide range of sizes from Hyundai Kona small to Jeep Wagoneer L massive means there’s something for everyone in the utility vehicle space. Well, everyone who doesn’t care too much about a low H-point, SCCA autocross eligibility, or road feel. Maybe it’s best to just recognize that pickup truck owners, like sedan evangelists and coupe-driving cone warriors, are perhaps destined to be a minority on the roads. The utility vehicle, whether crossover or sport, will eventually consume us all if nothing dramatically changes. [Ed Note: I think EVs are going to bring sedans back, which is a view shared by other people here, for aero reasons. I also think that CUVs, in particular, are just going to become cars. – MH] Of course, the long-term future of the car market is a bit hazy as the electric transition largely negates the CAFE footprint rule that penalizes small cars. In addition, higher interest rates could drive consumers toward vehicles that are fairly cheap to buy and run. Electric trucks also hold huge appeal, so it’s entirely possible that sedans and half-ton trucks will both claw back market share from utility vehicles. I wouldn’t hold my breath, though. (Lead photo credit: Ram)
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And a van for all of us to go places in with plenty of room for luggage and such…..each vehicle with a purpose…….and maybe one with the soul purpose of fun……..this is Autopian after all. “People who can afford more stuff are more likely to buy new vehicles, and they want vehicles that can carry all the extra stuff they can afford” I do not think rich people hoarding stuff has anything at all to do with cuvs. If this had anything to do with the truth they would all be driving panel vans. I’m not saying they’re impractical, but I can’t fit in the back of some mainstream models, and knee room is usually at a premium all around. That said, this could be a situation where higher gas prices drove people who don’t need pickup capabilities to SUVs in hopes of saving fuel while people looking for capability went to the super duties. Or the current market meant they couldn’t find the pickup they wanted and settled for SUVs or keeping their current pickup. In either of those situations, heavy duty sales remaining flat could mean that we are going to see them pick up sales as supply constraints and fuel prices ease, with the regular full-size pickup falling behind. It’ll be interesting to watch for the next few years, especially as EV pickups likely increase in market share and availability. I’m also highly highly skeptical of the idea that EVs will bring back cars because of aerodynamics. Slippery, efficient vehicles are available now, and obviously haven’t changed consumers mindset. Ride height, ease of loading kids, and cargo space are simply more important to most consumers than a few percent of efficiency or at-the-limit handling. And while a crossover has typically been more $ than the compact it’s based on, space and equipment aren’t. Passenger space for the CR-V/RAV4/etc. are much more comparable to midsize sedans than the compacts. For ~$30k, you’ve got a midsize sedan, vs. a crossover that seats 4 as comfortably, 5 in a pinch, but you don’t have to hunch over to get in/out or load groceries in the back. You can load most of the RAV4/etc. up to the same levels as the midsize offering, usually equipment beyond what a compact offers. Sure they could offer the same equipment on the compact car too, but it’s the classic “at that price, why not just buy the next size up”. Which was helped by higher margins and better incentives on a Camry over a Corolla. Actually, if anything – OEMs spent years nudging buyers toward midsize cars over a compact, now consumer tastes have changed. Combine that with a marketing push highlighting the capabilities and the image of CUVs, reduction in sedan availability, and the availability of some features, and it’s hard to say that the consumer drove the push. Sure, the consumer played a role, as did pop culture, but they rarely change so drastically without a push from marketers. This isn’t to say it was all the companies, either. Fuel efficiency regulations made “light trucks” more appealing to the companies, and the availability of cheap gas encouraged buyers to look at capability before efficiency. Automakers took advantage and found they could make a few extra bucks in the process. But if you need to load something bulky, a hatch indeed usually still wins. Sedan trunk openings have narrowed, feel like it comes up every time on new model intros – “just make the car a fastback.” I think it’s still more the entry/exit than cargo space however. Even after years of minivans, getting someone to drop down (literally) to a car is a tougher sell. My parents had 3 minivans growing up, dad usually had a car, but even he had to give in to a small SUV a couple years ago for his back. OEMs tried making sedans larger and sit higher to stem the tide of SUVs over the 2000s into the early 2010s, but people kept buying more SUVs and crossovers anyway. Ford Five Hundred was the most obvious example, but the ’03 Corolla, ’02 Camry, and ’08 Accord also did so. I do get that the skateboard battery pack adds a few inches of height to all of these vehicles, but none of them do anything to compensate. Instead they embrace the size, and everything gets bigger and more unwieldy. Feh. I love my Ram 2500 work truck because it’s not at my expense to use it but I will acknowledge it is the size of a small moon. I wouldn’t actively choose a vehicle that large or cumbersome or expensive to run/maintain. I find it amazing how, for decades, most families on planet earth traveled in cars with wheelbases under 10ft and curb weights under 2k. That is, if your lucky enough not to be all piling on to the same motor scooter. But having anything less than a full-size SUV for all of lil’ Muffy’s things?! Unthinkable! Whenever the grade school in my town let’s out, the pick-up line looks like the Luciano Crime family is holding another summit. 1973-1993 or so was the outlier, it’s just unfortunate for intelligent discourse that so many commenter’s formative years were encompassed therein. I guess it’s time to replace my Model T. Isn’t luxury having someone else drive? So I hate to say I don’t think sedans are coming back any time soon. And really, if really heavy vehicles are the poison pill of electrification, would they really be the same? I do think EVs will allow for more sedans in the near-term, but overall I think EVs are allowing the conventional car “shapes” and types to evolve since they don’t have the packaging limitations that ICE vehicles do. Sort of a blending of variants together. Ioniq 5 is a good example IMO as it has more room inside than an Accord or Sonata while being almost a foot shorter, taller than a regular car and gets billed as an SUV but isn’t as tall as a crossover. Enthusiasts say “people should buy a station wagon!!” for more space, but wagons still share the same seating position and entry/exit that people don’t really want in a sedan. I think people want to sit upright and more “chairlike,” than they want to sit high, and with easy entry/exit. Fastbacks/hatchbacks though? You may have a point. They probably will still be called CUVs though since that’s what sells – see Ionic 5 for proof. God I hope you’re right! The amount of times I get blinded by SUVs and trucks on a nightly basis is growing by the day. I’ve actually taken to counting sedans when I’m in traffic. I don’t have hard numbers but I can tell you that lately it feels like I count 1 sedan for every 20 or so trucks and SUVs on the road. Ninety percent of people don’t actually want a pickup. I’m not even going down the road of “well they only need something smaller and sensible.” No, ninety percent of people would be significantly happier buying something else. I’ll go further – pickups are bad at the things regular people think they want pickups for. Family cars? Total shit. Harder to get kids in and out, often have to pack groceries in with the kids if you didn’t pay extra for the tonneau cover, only two rows anyway so your kids can’t bring their friends, you don’t have any cover when you have to load in the rain. Bad choice. Bad weather vehicle? Crap. The sheer number of fishtailing Silverados I see when the snow falls is staggering. Basically, built to haul, so they have very light rear ends, and thus NO grip on the back. “But four wheel dri…” NOPE, you still need grip in the rear, so you better load your garage into the box if you want to drive anywhere in winter. Safety? Nope! They might be big bruisers but they don’t have to meet the same safety requirements for that reason. “Well they’re bigger so…” Majority of fatal accidents are single vehicle. And what are the top two vehicles involved in fatal accidents? Going by a quick search, between 2016 and 2020 it was the Silverado and F150, baby – the F150 in a full 2,000 more fatal crashes than the third place Honda Accord. The Ram is in 5th. Trucks have a purpose, of course – maybe you have to tow or bring home grandfather clocks every day. But the majority of truck buyers would actually be happier with something else. Something closer to a 63 Stude, and less like a envoy XUV
